Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 29.212424 32.213557 35.536351 39.516168 44.190927 49.555227 56.246321
2025-07-27 24.841708 28.847297 33.648637 39.937359 48.129304 58.699661 73.838618
2025-08-03 21.593628 26.038731 31.692403 39.636105 50.912609 67.060512 93.486843
2025-08-10 19.222176 23.861486 30.043121 39.240645 53.292684 75.408277 116.662256
2025-08-17 17.561081 22.333186 28.947221 39.293851 56.196823 85.330212 147.612431
2025-08-24 16.116962 20.893070 27.725243 38.864272 58.134969 94.177250 182.159366
2025-08-31 14.946632 19.693281 26.669876 38.464728 59.957165 103.393468 224.878733
2025-09-07 13.963740 18.656919 25.719080 38.048556 61.603438 112.850989 277.774194
2025-09-14 13.163405 17.811836 24.958872 37.816117 63.517428 123.708467 349.339051
2025-09-21 12.401979 16.957457 24.087763 37.243168 64.589828 133.018001 430.953733
2025-09-28 12.151889 16.869041 24.448034 38.968573 71.021482 160.261944 670.580023
2025-10-05 11.604567 16.262996 23.872467 38.809848 73.122112 176.043546 909.012733
2025-10-12 11.122922 15.739659 23.410111 38.852868 75.863837 196.496584 1336.131692
2025-10-19 10.765608 15.394778 23.229732 39.452405 80.256584 227.180011 2324.657957
2025-10-26 10.325504 14.881746 22.701539 39.243304 82.452578 251.342228 3965.462772
2025-11-02 9.905537 14.375664 22.143147 38.893240 84.188779 275.736925 7527.220904
2025-11-09 9.574399 13.999982 21.794617 38.964139 87.244264 311.379275 22485.206506
2025-11-16 9.210946 13.546894 21.264022 38.548227 88.693760 340.463238 114205.606152
2025-11-23 8.878397 13.129243 20.770080 38.157274 90.154767 372.834117 NaN
2025-11-30 8.568174 12.734473 20.292268 37.747726 91.476745 407.624141 NaN
2025-12-07 8.299187 12.398972 19.907035 37.518787 93.416497 452.664295 NaN
2025-12-14 8.013054 12.019106 19.409066 36.952813 93.990280 488.118635 NaN
2025-12-21 7.971286 12.075613 19.786426 38.658357 103.983289 657.684719 NaN